01
✳40.78° N
73.97° W
73.97° W
Know the source.
Bring the exact settlement station and contract language into the research flow.
FOR KALSHI + POLYMARKET WEATHER TRADERS
Research the weather before you trade.
Compare the forecast range, contract price, and settlement rule in one workspace for Kalshi and Polymarket weather markets. This preview uses illustrative data; live feeds are not connected.
Your research. Your decision. No guaranteed outcomes.
FORECAST SHIFTNew model run detected
DEMOWEATHERTRADER / RESEARCH TERMINALPREVIEW
MARKET INTELLIGENCEILLUSTRATIVE DATA
New York
Daily high temperature · Sample market
☁↗
FORECAST CENTER74°FLikely range 71–76°F
YES PRICE31¢Illustrative snapshot
STATIONKNYCVerify contract rules
MODEL RANGEPROBABILITY BY OUTCOME
SETTLEMENT RULES FIRST
COMPARE PRICE, SPREAD & RISK ↗
SETTLEMENT CHECKMatch the exact station
01 / 03THE CONTRACT. THE FORECAST. THE PRICE.SCROLL TO EXPLORE ↓
STATION-LEVEL CONTEXT✳MODEL MOVEMENT✳MARKET PRICES✳CONTRACT RULES✳WEATHER INTELLIGENCE✳STATION-LEVEL CONTEXT✳MODEL MOVEMENT
01 / THE PROBLEM
A single degree can change the outcome.
Weather contracts settle against a defined source, not the temperature on your phone. Put the rule, forecast range, and market price on the same screen before you decide.
02
FORECAST RUNS ↗
See the range.
Compare possible outcomes and how forecasts change, instead of anchoring on one number.
03
31¢
PRICE IS PART OF THE FORECAST
Respect the price.
Review contract price and spread before you decide whether a position makes sense.
02 / THE TERMINAL
Would you pay 31¢
for 73–74°F?
A YES contract wins if KNYC records a New York high of 73–74°F. In this example it costs 31¢, while the sample forecast assigns that range 38%. WeatherTrader puts the price, forecast, and settlement rule together so you can judge what the market is asking you to buy. Illustrative data only.
New York daily high
Will KNYC report a daily high of 73–74°F?
FORECAST CENTER74°FLikely range 71–76°F
YES PRICE31¢Illustrative snapshot
SETTLEMENT STATIONKNYCCheck contract source
MODEL DISTRIBUTION
ILLUSTRATIVEWhere could the high land?
Forecast scenario range↗ Changes require a subscription
BEFORE YOU TRADE / 01Check the station, not the city.
The contract-defined station determines settlement. A nearby phone forecast may use a different location.
✳Track forecast movement
See how model runs shift and where their outcomes diverge.
FORECAST MODELS
Watch the range, not a single run.
Compare changes across multiple model updates. The sample below shows how the Pro view would organize them.
MODEL RUNHIGHCHANGESTATUS
Illustrative run A73°F—Sample
Illustrative run B75°F+2°FSample
Illustrative run C74°F−1°FSample
🔒 Full model history is planned for Pro.
CONTRACT-FIRST RESEARCH
The wording is the trade.
Before taking a position, verify the exchange's exact rule, observation window and official source.
ILLUSTRATIVE STATIONKNYCConfirm against the live contract.
MEASUREMENTDaily high temperatureUnit and rounding rules matter.
SETTLEMENT WINDOWContract-defined dayCheck time zone and publication timing.
FINAL SOURCEExchange rulebookRead it before trading.
This is a research demo. No contract terms, station identifiers, prices or weather values shown here should be used for a real trade.
WHAT PRO IS PLANNED TO ADDKeep the full contract in view.
Interactive product preview. All temperatures, prices and probabilities are illustrative; live market and weather feeds are not connected.
03 / THE METHOD
A better workflow starts before the forecast.
01↗
Start with the market rule
Identify the exact question, station, data source, and settlement window.
02↗
Map the weather scenarios
See the range of plausible outcomes and what changed between model runs.
03↗
Compare against the price
Look at the contract price, spread, liquidity and your own risk tolerance.
04 / WEATHERTRADER PRO
See the forecast.
Know the contract.
Built for traders researching weather markets on Kalshi and Polymarket. Compare the forecast range, market price, and exact settlement source before making your call.
Pro offer: $1 for your first 7 days, then $40 every 7 days until canceled, plus applicable tax. Early access preview; paid Pro currently contains illustrative sample insights only.